The prices of the world's first and second largest herbicides have continued to rise in recent times, and the domestic prices in these two days have reached a new high during the year. Among them, glyphosate increased by 32.86% year-on-year, and glufosinate increased by 54.55% year-on-year! With industry analysis, it will still maintain high prices before March next year.

What factors have caused the prices of these two herbicides to continue to rise?

It is understood that the price of two herbicides rose mainly for the following reasons：

1. Short supply and upstream raw material price increase.

In terms of glyphosate, reduced supply and stable demand are one of the main reasons for price increases. The flood damage in Sichuan in the third quarter of this year reduced the output of some  manufacturers, resulting in a decrease in the overall supply of glyphosate and a decrease in inventory. In the upstream of the industrial chain, the cost of raw materials has risen, and the prices of raw materials such as glycine, yellow phosphorus, liquid chlorine, methanol and paraformaldehyde have increased during the year. It is understood that there is almost no stock in the manufacturers, and pre-sale orders are mainly executed.

2. Domestic peak season of glyphosate production has entered, and various companies are stocking up for the winter, increasing the demand for glyphosate.

3. Affected by the epidemic, the production of some foreign glyphosate manufacturers was blocked, and most of the orders were transferred to the domestic market, which further increased the imbalance between supply and demand.

Regarding glufosinate-ammonium, according to the monitoring of authoritative institutions, there is no new production capacity on the supply side of the market at present. As for raw materials, the upward price of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus will also continue to support the rise in the price of glufosinate. In addition to the same reasons for the above-mentioned price increase of glyphosate, the opening of a new international market for glufosinate and the expansion of the original market demand are also important reasons for the price increase of glufosinate.

What is the future trend of the two herbicides?

Some market participants predict that the ban on paraquat in many countries has released huge market space for glyphosate and glufosinate. At the same time, the first and fourth quarters of each year are the peak seasons for herbicide sales, and without any increase in production capacity, it will promote the production and sales of the two herbicides in the near future.

Both herbicides are in short supply. China is a major producer of glyphosate, with a total capacity of about 700,000 tons. According to the monitoring of professional organization, the installation load of domestic glyphosate manufacturers has remained stable recently. The manufacturers mainly focus on executing orders, they have almost no inventory, and traders have limited inventory. The imbalance between supply and demand will continue for some time in the future.　

China is also a major producer of glufosinate-ammonium. Compared with glyphosate, the overall output is relatively small, and due to the supply of intermediates, the price of glufosinate will continue to be high in 2020.　

In general, the prices of glyphosate and glufosinate will remain high before the first wave of herbicide distribution is completed in China.